Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Twins vs Red Sox – 9/21/2024

Minnesota Twins

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins square up for the second game of their series on September 21, 2024, at Fenway Park, both teams find themselves in different situations. The Twins, with an 81-73 record, are having an above-average season and are still in the hunt for postseason play. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, at 76-78, are more focused on finishing the season strong, but their playoff hopes are dwindling.

The first game of the series proved to be a competitive clash, with the Red Sox claiming a hard-fought victory. Tonight’s matchup pits Boston’s Kutter Crawford against Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez. Crawford, ranked as the #75 best starting pitcher, is considered above average, boasting a 4.19 ERA this season, though his peripheral stats hint at potential regression. Lopez, on the other hand, is ranked as the #15 best pitcher and is having an elite season, with projections indicating he has been somewhat unlucky and might perform even better.

The Red Sox hold an offensive edge, ranking 7th in MLB this season, supported by their strong batting average and power across the lineup. The Twins aren’t far behind, with their offense ranked 10th, but they struggle with stolen bases, sitting at 29th. Notably, Boston’s bullpen ranks 13th, offering stability late in games against Minnesota’s less favorable 22nd-ranked bullpen.

Betting markets are slightly favoring the Twins, but THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, estimates the Red Sox have a 53% chance of victory, an 8% improvement over market implications. With Boston’s strong lineup and recent win momentum, there may be value in siding with the home team as they look to claim another victory against a playoff hopeful opponent.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Pablo Lopez’s four-seamer percentage has risen by 6.5% from last season to this one (34.5% to 41%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Edouard Julien – Over/Under Hits
  Edouard Julien has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Kutter Crawford – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Kutter Crawford’s 2503-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 93rd percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  This season, Tyler O’Neill has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.1 mph compared to last year’s 92.8 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 87 games (+11.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+200/-270)
  Jarren Duran has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.35 Units / 29% ROI)