Find Phillies vs Mets Value Bets and Betting Line – Saturday September 21st, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies

@

New York Mets

Two National League East powerhouses clash on September 21, 2024, as the Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Mets at Citi Field. With playoff implications simmering, both clubs are keen to strengthen their postseason credentials. The Phillies, boasting a stellar 92-62 record, have currently positioned themselves as leaders in the NL East. Meanwhile, the Mets, at 85-69, continue their strong push, trailing just behind in the division.

Philadelphia’s Bryce Harper has been red-hot over his last seven games, delivering seven RBIs and smashing three home runs. Harper’s performance will be pivotal as the Phillies aim to capitalize on their status as the league’s 4th-best offense. The Mets, despite being 8th in offensive rankings, have shown their power with the 6th-most home runs this season, a facet that could challenge Phillies’ starter Ranger Suarez.

This matchup features a lefty duel between the Mets’ Sean Manaea and the Phillies’ Ranger Suarez. Manaea has quietly put together a solid season with an 11-5 record and a 3.26 ERA. Although his xFIP suggests slight overperformance, he’s still ranked 80th among MLB starters. Suarez, on the other hand, is enjoying a strong campaign with a 3.13 ERA, ranking him 47th among starters. His groundball prowess may counter the Mets’ power, making for an intriguing battle on the mound.

Despite the betting markets viewing this as an even contest with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Phillies a slight edge with a 53% chance to emerge victorious. The Mets, determined to make a statement at home, will look to gain ground in the playoff race in this critical matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  With a 0.9 discrepancy between Ranger Suarez’s 8.71 K/9 and his 7.81 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts and should negatively regress in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Weston Wilson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Despite posting a .364 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Weston Wilson has been very fortunate given the .079 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .285.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Bryce Harper has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Sean Manaea’s 91.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.1-mph drop off from last year’s 92.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• J.D. Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  J.D. Martinez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (86% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The New York Mets have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 98 games (+18.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 59 games (+18.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+440/-700)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 50 games (+12.90 Units / 26% ROI)