Bets and Betting Tips for Braves vs Marlins – September 20, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins get set to take on the Atlanta Braves on September 20, 2024, at LoanDepot Park, they find themselves playing for pride against a challenging division rival. The Marlins have had a rough season, with a 56-97 record, ranking them 4th in the National League East. Contrarily, the Braves, boasting an 83-70 record, stand 2nd in the division, fighting for a postseason berth.

Valente Bellozo, the Marlins’ starting pitcher, ranks as the 307th-best starter in MLB, indicative of his struggles this season. Despite a commendable 3.70 ERA, his 5.46 xFIP suggests a decline in performance might be looming. Bellozo’s projection of allowing 3.1 earned runs and just 4.7 innings of work doesn’t inspire much confidence, especially against a Braves lineup that ranks 4th in MLB for home runs, a threat to the high-flyball tendencies of Bellozo. Matt Olson, the Braves’ standout hitter of late, further compounds the Marlins’ challenges, boasting a .375 average and 1.433 OPS over the last week.

On the mound for Atlanta, Charlie Morton presents a steadier presence. With a 4.01 ERA and an 8-8 win/loss record, he’s been slightly above average. Morton’s projected 5.4 innings and 2.6 earned runs allowed should help keep the Marlins’ struggling offense at bay. While Miami ranks 29th in overall MLB offense, their ability to hit for average is merely middling.

The Braves’ advantage extends to their bullpen, ranked 7th, compared to the Marlins’ dismal 29th. With the advanced-stat Power Rankings offering 4% more value on Miami than the betting odds suggest, there’s potential for value betting on the Marlins, despite the long odds. However, given the offensive and pitching dynamics, Atlanta seems poised to exploit Miami’s vulnerabilities, making them the likely favorites in this matchup.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Charlie Morton has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an extra 5.7 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-240)
  Michael Harris II is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 56% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.6% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Valente Bellozo – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Valente Bellozo has a large reverse platoon split and has the misfortune of going up against 6 same-handed bats in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Kyle Stowers has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 101.1-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.3-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Connor Norby, Jake Burger, Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 78 games at home (+33.15 Units / 38% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 139 games (+33.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Whit Merrifield – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 70% ROI)