Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Nationals vs Cubs – Friday September 20th, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the Washington Nationals on September 20, 2024, the Cubs find themselves in a crucial position. With a 78-75 record, they are having an average season but are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Nationals, on the other hand, have had a rough year with a 68-85 record, effectively ruling them out of playoff contention.

Yesterday, the Cubs took the first game of this series against the Nationals, setting a favorable tone for today’s matchup at Wrigley Field. Jameson Taillon will be on the mound for the Cubs. Despite being ranked 134th in starting pitchers, Taillon’s season ERA of 3.54 is solid, though his performance might be slightly inflated given his 4.09 xFIP suggests some luck was involved. Trevor Williams will start for the Nationals. He’s managed an impressive 2.22 ERA, but his 3.96 xFIP indicates that his luck might run out soon.

The Cubs’ offense, ranked 12th overall, will look to take advantage of Williams’ potential regression. Chicago’s ability to swipe bases (6th in stolen bases) could disrupt Washington’s defense. Seiya Suzuki has been a standout performer lately, boasting a .393 batting average and a 1.036 OPS over the last week.

For the Nationals, the offense has struggled, ranking 23rd in overall performance and 29th in home runs. While James Wood has been heating up with two home runs in the past week, the Nationals will need more firepower to keep pace with Chicago.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, heavily favors the Cubs with a 63% win probability, higher than their implied 60%. The projections anticipate a high-scoring affair, with Chicago expected to push across 6.06 runs. This matchup leans in the Cubs’ favor, as they look to gain an edge in the playoff race.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average hurler, Trevor Williams has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -7.7 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under Hits
  Juan Yepez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  James Wood has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Jameson Taillon’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (59.6% this year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Michael Busch has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 89.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under Team Total
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games at home (+11.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 54 away games (+8.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+14.60 Units / 39% ROI)