San Francisco Giants
Baltimore Orioles
(-120/+100)-165
As we approach the conclusion of the regular season, the Baltimore Orioles continue to solidify their playoff aspirations, boasting a solid 84-68 record. That places them in a promising position for postseason play. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants, with a 74-78 record, find themselves in an uphill battle to remain relevant in the playoff picture. The Orioles will look to bounce back after a 5-3 defeat at the hands of the Giants on September 18, a game where Baltimore was favored but failed to deliver.
The Orioles, hosting this matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, will send Zach Eflin to the mound. Eflin, ranked as the 30th best starter in MLB, has consistently demonstrated his capabilities with a respectable 3.55 ERA this season. His recent performance on September 13 showcased his potential, as he pitched seven strong innings, allowing just one earned run. The Orioles’ offense, which ranks 7th in MLB, will aim to provide ample support, especially with their power-hitting prowess, ranking 2nd in home runs.
On the other side, the Giants will counter with Logan Webb, an elite right-hander ranked 11th among MLB starters. Despite a 3.53 ERA, Webb’s 3.01 FIP suggests he’s been slightly unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. His groundball-heavy approach could be a crucial factor against Baltimore’s power hitters. Offensively, the Giants have struggled, ranking 21st overall. However, their bullpen, ranked 6th, offers them a solid chance to close out games if they manage to gain an early lead.
THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Orioles a projected win probability of 57%, slightly higher than the implied odds. This suggests value in backing the Orioles to capitalize on their offensive strengths and Eflin’s steadiness to secure a victory in this interleague clash.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Logan Webb has gone to his secondary offerings 8.9% less often this season (53.8%) than he did last year (62.7%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.233) implies that Tyler Fitzgerald has had positive variance on his side this year with his .290 actual batting average.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Zach Eflin – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Over his last 3 games started, Zach Eflin has seen a big drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2098 rpm over the entire season to 2024 rpm in recent games.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
- Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Ryan O’Hearn is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 96% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Baltimore’s 14.5° launch angle (an advanced stat to measure the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the steepest in the majors this year: #4 overall.Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Betting Trends
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 82 games (+17.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 away games (+9.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+950/-2900)Cedric Mullins has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 20 games at home (+14.50 Units / 73% ROI)