Check Out the Athletics vs Cubs Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 9/18/2024

Oakland Athletics

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Chicago Cubs

On September 18, 2024, the Chicago Cubs and Oakland Athletics face off at Wrigley Field in the third game of their interleague series. The Cubs are coming off a narrow 4-3 defeat to the Athletics and are looking to bounce back, sitting with a 77-75 record as they fight to stay in the postseason race in the National League. Meanwhile, the Athletics, with a struggling 67-86 record, have played spoiler in their last matchup and aim to continue their momentum.

The pitching matchup features lefty Justin Steele for the Cubs, who ranks as the 16th best starter in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Although his 3.09 ERA is impressive, his 3.68 SIERA suggests he’s had some luck on his side. Steele projects to allow just 1.5 earned runs on average today—an elite forecast that could be key for the Cubs. Opposing him, Brady Basso will take the mound for the Athletics. Basso, despite being labeled as a bad pitcher by MLB standards, boasts a surprisingly low 1.23 ERA over limited appearances. However, his 3.63 xFIP indicates potential regression.

Offensively, the Cubs bring a well-rounded lineup, ranking 12th in overall offense and 6th in stolen bases. Ian Happ leads the charge with 25 home runs and a .806 OPS. On the flip side, the Athletics rely heavily on power, ranking 5th in home runs, with Brent Rooker as their standout performer. Rooker’s .956 OPS and 38 home runs highlight his threat at the plate.

The Cubs, favored with a moneyline of -180, will look to capitalize on their home-field advantage and stronger lineup. With THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, giving them a 64% chance to win, Chicago aims to leverage Steele’s prowess against an Athletics team eager for another upset.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+155)
  The Oakland Athletics infield defense grades out as the 2nd-best among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Tyler Nevin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Tyler Nevin has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (58% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Oakland Athletics have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lawrence Butler, Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Justin Steele is projected to throw 74 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of all pitchers today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Dansby Swanson’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 89.2-mph seasonal average has decreased to 80-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago Cubs bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+13.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+155)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 72 games (+9.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+10.00 Units / 143% ROI)