New York Yankees
Chicago Cubs
(-110/-110)+120
As the New York Yankees visit Wrigley Field to face the Chicago Cubs on September 7, 2024, both teams enter this Interleague matchup with different objectives. The Yankees, boasting a solid record of 81-60 and holding the 1st best offense in MLB, are looking to maintain their momentum. In contrast, the Cubs sit at 72-69, showing an average season, and need to find a way to elevate their play if they hope to stay competitive in the Wild Card race.
In their last game, the Yankees shut out the Cubs 3-0, highlighting the dominance of their pitching staff. Clarke Schmidt, who is projected to take the mound today, has been impressive this season, owning a stellar 2.52 ERA and ranking as the 47th best starting pitcher in MLB. Meanwhile, Javier Assad, who has been unlucky this season with a 3.21 ERA, is projected for average innings but has shown vulnerability, posting a 4.63 xFIP.
Offensively, while the Yankees lead the league with their powerful lineup, the Cubs have struggled, particularly with power hitting—ranking 23rd in home runs this year. Additionally, the projections indicate the Cubs’ current team total is low at 3.46 runs, suggesting a challenge against Schmidt.
One bright spot for the Cubs has been Ian Happ, their best hitter, who has made significant contributions throughout the season. However, if the Cubs want to turn their fortunes, they’ll need a standout performance from Assad to counteract the Yankees’ aggressive approach. With the stakes high and the Yankees as the betting favorite, this game has the potential to showcase contrasting styles and highlight how the Cubs respond after a tough loss.
New York Yankees Insights
- Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Clarke Schmidt’s cutter rate has spiked by 7.4% from last season to this one (28.2% to 35.6%) .Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)Alex Verdugo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- New York Yankees bats jointly rank near the top of the league this year () when it comes to their 90.1-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Javier Assad – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Javier Assad’s 2037-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 10th percentile out of all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Ian Happ has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 94.1-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 91-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Patrick Wisdom – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Patrick Wisdom pulls many of his flyballs (37.5% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 95 games (+23.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+20.70 Units / 35% ROI)