See the Odds and Betting Tips for Braves vs D-Backs – (July 10th, 2024

Atlanta Braves

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Arizona Diamondbacks

With the Arizona Diamondbacks hosting the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field on July 10, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this National League matchup. The Braves hold a solid record of 51-39, positioning them for a potential playoff push. Meanwhile, the D-Backs, sitting at 45-47, are aiming to climb back to .500 and improve their standing.

The Braves emerged victorious by a score of 6-2 in the previous game on July 9, showcasing their offensive strength and making it two wins in a row against the D-Backs in this series. Atlanta’s Marcell Ozuna has been pivotal, hitting 23 home runs with a 0.933 OPS this season. For Arizona, Christian Walker has been a key performer, recently hitting four home runs in the last seven games while batting 0.333 with a 1.212 OPS.

On the mound, the D-Backs will start Slade Cecconi, who has struggled this season with a 6.10 ERA and a 2-6 record. Despite these numbers, Cecconi’s 4.47 xFIP suggests some bad luck and potential for improvement. His projections are average, including a 5.0 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs allowed, and 4.4 strikeouts. His counterpart, Charlie Morton, provides the Braves with a reliable arm. Morton has posted a respectable 3.96 ERA and a 5-5 record this year. He projects slightly better with 5.2 innings pitched and 5.4 strikeouts.

Offensively, the D-Backs rank 11th-best overall and 8th in team batting average, which should help counterbalance their pitching issues. The Braves rank 13th overall in offense but have seen power from players like Ozuna, contributing to their 12th-best ranking in team home runs.

The betting lines suggest a close game, with Arizona’s moneyline at -115 and Atlanta’s at -105. The game total is set high at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations of a high-scoring affair. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects a slight edge for the D-Backs with a 54% win probability, versus the implied 51% from the betting markets.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Charlie Morton’s 93.3-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1-mph decrease from last season’s 94.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Eddie Rosario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Eddie Rosario can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Slade Cecconi is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue in Major League Baseball today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Atlanta’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Herrera (the D-Backs’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+15.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)