Discover Odds and Betting Trends for Mets vs D-Backs – 8/27/24

New York Mets

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the New York Mets on August 27, 2024, both teams come into this matchup with solid seasons, although only the Diamondbacks are truly in contention for the postseason. Arizona is currently 75-56, showcasing one of the 2nd best offenses in MLB, while the Mets sit at 68-63, ranking 9th overall.

In their most recent outings, the Diamondbacks took a victory against the Boston Red Sox, winning 7-5, while the Mets fell just short against the San Diego Padres, losing 3-2. This matchup marks the beginning of a series where both teams will look to gain momentum.

On the mound, Brandon Pfaadt is projected to start for Arizona. He has had an above-average season with a Win/Loss record of 8-6 and an ERA of 4.08. However, his advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky, with a 3.52 xERA indicating he may perform even better moving forward. In contrast, the Mets will send Sean Manaea to the hill. Manaea has been solid, boasting a 9-5 record and a stellar 3.48 ERA, but his metrics suggest he could regress.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts a high-scoring affair, projecting the Diamondbacks to score an average of 4.68 runs while the Mets are expected to score around 4.70 runs. Despite the closeness of the odds—both teams currently sitting at a -110 moneyline—Arizona’s potent offense paired with Pfaadt’s potential for improvement makes them a strong play in this contest. As both teams look to capitalize on their respective strengths, fans can expect an engaging and competitive game at Chase Field.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Sean Manaea’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this year (91.7 mph) below where it was last season (92.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mark Vientos’s true offensive talent to be a .317, implying that he has been lucky this year given the .056 disparity between that mark and his actual .373 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Brandon Pfaadt projects to average 1.1 walks today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Jake McCarthy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  In today’s game, Josh Bell is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36% rate (89th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 47 games (+21.90 Units / 36% ROI)
• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 44 of their last 84 games (+8.70 Units / 8% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+14.65 Units / 44% ROI)