Dive Into the Head-to-Head Preview: Royals vs Guardians Matchup August 27, 2024

Kansas City Royals

@

Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field on August 27, 2024, this American League Central matchup holds significance for both teams. With the Guardians sitting at 75-57 and the Royals at 74-58, each team is vying for a favorable position as the season approaches its final stretch. Just yesterday, the Guardians faced off against the Royals but suffered a 9-4 defeat, a result that highlights the competitive edge of this series.

For today’s game, the Guardians are projected to start Gavin Williams, who, despite ranking as the 67th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has struggled this season with a 5.13 ERA and a 2-6 record over 10 starts. While he projects to pitch 5.1 innings and allow about 2.4 earned runs today, he has been unlucky, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.00, suggesting he might show improvement going forward.

On the other side, the Royals will counter with Michael Lorenzen, who has been more effective, sporting a 3.47 ERA and a 7-6 record over 22 starts. However, his xFIP of 4.99 indicates he may not sustain this success. Lorenzen’s recent performance, which included a solid outing where he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs, further cements his role as a key player in this contest.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 19th in MLB, reflecting an average unit that has shown flashes of potential—especially with Jose Ramirez leading the charge. Meanwhile, the Royals possess a slightly better offense, ranking 12th, with Bobby Witt Jr. displaying MVP-caliber talent.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Guardians are favored in this matchup, with an implied team total of 4.98 runs. The projections suggest that despite the recent loss and pitching inconsistencies, Cleveland has a strong chance to bounce back and take this crucial game in their quest for postseason positioning.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Michael Lorenzen’s 2385-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 78th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Kansas City Royals have been the 6th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Generating 14.2 outs per game per started this year on average, Gavin Williams places in the 9th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Lane Thomas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Lane Thomas has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph dropping to 81.1-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-160)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 58 games at home (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+9.00 Units / 27% ROI)
• Will Brennan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Will Brennan has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+17.30 Units / 61% ROI)