Discover the Mets vs Nationals Preview and Prediction - Saturday September 26, 2026

-110O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-110

Jonah Tong – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)
Jonah Tong has tallied 13.6 outs per GS this year, placing in the 25th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
A.J. Ewing – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
A.J. Ewing is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.5% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
The New York Mets have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Jake Irvin today.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Nasim Nuñez – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+240/-335)
Nasim Nunez has performed at a clip of 65.5 steals per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 100th percentile for base-stealing.
Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Washington Nationals in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .306, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .323 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+11.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.20 Units / 28% ROI)
Brady House – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Brady House has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)

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