Dodgers vs Giants Expert Picks and Betting Guide – 9/25/2026

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Freddie Freeman will probably have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.6% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Yunior Marte – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Compared to league average, Yunior Marte has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -10.4 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Shay Whitcomb – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+100/-130)
  When it comes to his batting average, Shay Whitcomb has been lucky since the start of last season. His .167 BA has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .097.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The underlying talent of the San Francisco Giants projected offense today (.282 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .308 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+150/-195)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+10.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-145/+110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernández – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Teoscar Hernández has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+7.85 Units / 19% ROI)