Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for D-Backs vs Rockies – Wednesday September 23, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Merrill Kelly’s cut-fastball rate has dropped by 7.1% from last season to this one (20.6% to 13.5%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jesús Sánchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Jesus Sanchez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (65% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Mason Adams – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Mason Adams’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2374 rpm) has been considerably better than than his seasonal rate (2295 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jake McCarthy is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Colorado Rockies offense projects for the 4th-most runs of all teams on the slate, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.85 Units / 52% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+6.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-155/+120)
  Lars Nootbaar has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.40 Units / 39% ROI)