
San Francisco Giants
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Los Angeles Dodgers
+230O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-270
(-110/-110)-270
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+210)Landen Roupp is an extreme groundball pitcher (47% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #4 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Jonah Cox – Over/Under Total BasesJonah Cox’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 88.2-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 79.5-mph over the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- San Francisco Giants – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-worst among all the teams in baseball.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-280)The San Francisco Giants have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Brock Stewart in today’s game, which is especially problematic given his large platoon split.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under Total BasesExtreme flyball batters like Max Muncy generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Landen Roupp.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under Total BasesMookie Betts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 9th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-270)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Freddie Freeman has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
