Current Player Trends for Red Sox vs Rays - Sunday September 20, 2026

+125O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-150

Patrick Sandoval – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
Patrick Sandoval has averaged 14.4 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 19th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Despite posting a .267 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jarren Duran has suffered from bad luck given the .051 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .318.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
It may be smart to expect negative regression for the Boston Red Sox offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Griffin Jax – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Griffin Jax must realize this, because he has gone to his non-fastballs a lot this year: 59.8% of the time, grading out in the 81st percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Jonny DeLuca – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
Jonny DeLuca is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
The 5.9% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays makes them the #30 club in Major League Baseball this year by this stat.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-150)
The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+7.55 Units / 24% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 64% ROI)
Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+110)
Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+7.30 Units / 68% ROI)

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