Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Mariners vs Rockies – Friday, September 18, 2026

Seattle Mariners

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Colorado Rockies

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryan Woo – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Bryan Woo has recorded 17.4 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under Hits
  Josh Naylor is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Seattle Mariners are expected to tally the most runs (6.68 on average) of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Ryan Feltner – Over/Under Strikeouts
  The Seattle Mariners have 7 hitters in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Feltner today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• T.J. Rumfield – Over/Under Total Bases
  T.J. Rumfield’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 84.2-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 81.6-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order today (.307 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .322 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.65 Units / 46% ROI)