Analyze the Astros vs Orioles Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Friday, August 23, 2024

Houston Astros

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Houston Astros on August 23, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the playoff race. The Orioles currently sit at 74-55, enjoying a strong season, while the Astros, at 69-58, are having an above-average campaign. Yesterday, the Astros shut out the Orioles 6-0, leaving Baltimore eager to bounce back in this crucial matchup.

Cade Povich, projected to start for the Orioles, has struggled this season with a 1-6 record and a troubling 5.77 ERA. Despite these numbers, advanced metrics suggest he might have been unlucky, as his expected ERA (xERA) sits at 4.02. In his last outing, Povich pitched well, going 6 innings with only 2 earned runs, but inconsistency has plagued him throughout the year. Compounding his challenges, he faces a low-strikeout Astros lineup, which could hinder his ability to capitalize on strikeouts.

On the other side, Hunter Brown is having a solid season for the Astros, boasting an 11-7 record and a 3.82 ERA. Brown’s ability to generate ground balls (47% GB rate) may prove advantageous against the Orioles, who lead MLB with 157 home runs this season. The projections lean towards the Astros, expecting them to score an average of 4.98 runs, while the Orioles are projected for 4.06 runs.

The Orioles’ offense ranks 5th overall in MLB, driven by standout performances from Gunnar Henderson, who has been crucial to their success this season. However, with the Astros’ bullpen ranked 9th best, they might have the edge in late-game situations. While the betting markets reflect a close contest, the Astros enter as slight favorites, making this matchup one to watch closely.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Hunter Brown has used his secondary offerings 5.2% less often this season (48.7%) than he did last season (53.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.273) provides evidence that Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance this year with his .231 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+100)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Colton Cowser has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+100)
  The 4th-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-160)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 64 of their last 118 games (+18.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 110 games (+19.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+135/-175)
  Anthony Santander has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+11.60 Units / 97% ROI)