
Milwaukee Brewers
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Cincinnati Reds
-145O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+125
(-110/-110)+125
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Kyle Harrison – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)With 7 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Kyle Harrison will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (99% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2H MoneylineThe Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Out of all SPs, Brady Singer’s fastball velocity of 90.7 mph grades out in the 8th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Elly De La Cruz has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.6-mph to 95.7-mph in the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Sal Stewart – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Sal Stewart has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+5.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 games (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-170/+130)JJ Bleday has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
