Blue Jays vs Royals Picks and Betting Odds - 9/5/2026

-110O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-110

Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
Max Scherzer was on point in his previous game started and allowed 1 ER.
Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
Ernie Clement’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 84.2-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 79-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
In today’s game, Alejandro Kirk is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.4% rate (97th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Seth Lugo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
Seth Lugo has averaged 92 adjusted pitches per outing this year, checking in at the 78th percentile.
Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
Extreme groundball bats like Kyle Isbel usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Scherzer.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
Kansas City ranks as the #28 group of hitters in the league when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (41.9% rate this year).
Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (-110)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)
Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)

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