Winning Probability and Match Preview for Cubs vs D-Backs - 8/24/2026

-145O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+125

Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-145)
The Chicago Cubs outfield defense profiles as the best out of all the teams today.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Michael Conforto stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
Recording 17 outs per start this year on average, Merrill Kelly falls in the 76th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Ryan Waldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
Ryan Waldschmidt is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#1-best on the slate today).
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 19.8% underlying K%.
Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+5.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+10.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
Gabriel Moreno has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+12.35 Units / 82% ROI)

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