Atlanta Braves
@
Minnesota Twins
-110O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)AJ Smith-Shawver is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.4% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #25 HR venue in MLB in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Taj Bradley has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in this game.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Extreme flyball hitters like Byron Buxton usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like AJ Smith-Shawver.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Byron Buxton ranks as the 10th-best hitter in the league.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games (+5.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 25 away games (+14.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Trevor Larnach has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)