
Detroit Tigers
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Pittsburgh Pirates
-120O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+100
(-110/-110)+100
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Framber Valdez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Framber Valdez has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 8 opposite-handed hitters in today’s game.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Eduardo Valencia – Over/Under HitsEduardo Valencia has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Detroit Tigers – 2H MoneylineThe Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+240/-335)Today, Henry Davis is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.6% rate (95th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
