Review the Marlins vs Reds Insights and Game Breakdown – August 14, 2026

Miami Marlins

@

Cincinnati Reds

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to league average, Sandy Alcantara has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an additional 8.4 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Griffin Conine – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Griffin Conine has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Esteury Ruiz – Over/Under Total Bases
  Esteury Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chase Burns – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  When assessing his strikeout skill, Chase Burns projects as the 16th-best SP in the game right now, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under Total Bases
  Matt McLain has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.8-mph dropping to 79.9-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Eugenio Suarez, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts