
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Arizona Diamondbacks
-195O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+170
(-110/-110)+170
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 6.3 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Tommy Edman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Tommy Edman’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.3-mph average last season has fallen off to 83.8-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all MLB teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Brandon Pfaadt’s slider utilization has decreased by 5.4% from last season to this one (18.7% to 13.3%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Ryan Waldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Hitters such as Ryan Waldschmidt with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+5.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Andy Pages – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)Andy Pages has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 21% ROI)
