
Baltimore Orioles
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Texas Rangers
+125O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-150
(+100/-120)-150
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Kyle Bradish’s high utilization rate of his fastball (51.8% this year) is likely weakening his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Gunnar Henderson has been unlucky this year, putting up a .299 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .340 — a .041 gap.Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
- Christian Encarnacio – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Christian Encarnacion-Strand hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Jacob deGrom’s 96.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 89th percentile out of all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jake Burger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)Jake Burger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Texas grades out as the #28 squad in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (14.3% rate this year).Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+8.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Ezequiel Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)Ezequiel Duran has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+11.95 Units / 48% ROI)
