Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Nationals vs Mets – 09 July 2024

Washington Nationals

@

New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Washington Nationals on July 9, 2024, at Citi Field, both teams find themselves in a National League East matchup that’s more about pride than playoff positioning. The Mets, sitting at 44-45, are having an average season, while the Nationals, at 42-49, are performing below average.

The Mets will send lefty Jose Quintana to the mound. Quintana, ranked #180 among starting pitchers according to advanced stats, has a 3-5 record with a 4.22 ERA this year. However, his 5.34 xERA suggests he’s been fortunate and could regress. Quintana’s low strikeout rate (17.1 K%) could be a concern against a Nationals offense that ranks 6th in least strikeouts, potentially neutralizing one of his few strengths.

On the flip side, the Nationals will counter with right-hander Jake Irvin. Irvin, with a 7-6 record and an excellent 2.80 ERA, is considered an average pitcher by advanced metrics. Despite his strong ERA, his 3.61 xFIP indicates some luck has been involved. Both pitchers project to have average outings today, with Irvin expected to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.5 innings and Quintana 2.5 earned runs over 5.8 innings.

Offensively, the Mets hold an edge. Ranked 11th in overall offense, the Mets boast the 4th most home runs in MLB, a stark contrast to the Nationals’ 29th ranking in the same category. However, the Nationals do excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd, which could be a factor if they can get on base.

Betting markets have the Mets as slight favorites with a moneyline of -135, implying a 55% win probability. Given the Mets’ stronger offense and better bullpen, they appear to have a slight upper hand in this matchup. The Nationals, however, could exploit Quintana’s struggles and make it a closer contest than the odds suggest.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Jake Irvin – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Jake Irvin has tallied 17.7 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Luis Garcia is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Juan Yepez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Juan Yepez pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Jose Quintana has added a slider to his arsenal this season and has worked it in 5.3% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Nimmo stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-140)
  The New York Mets projected lineup profiles as the 5th-best of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 61 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 84 games (+8.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• DJ Stewart – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  DJ Stewart has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 29% ROI)