Review Nationals vs Phillies Bets and Betting Trends – Friday, August 16, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Washington Nationals in a crucial National League East matchup on August 16, 2024. The Phillies are enjoying a strong season, sitting at 71-50, while the Nationals are struggling at 55-67. In their last outing, the Phillies faced the Nationals and secured a decisive victory, showcasing their offensive prowess.

Philadelphia’s ace, Aaron Nola, is projected to start, and he has been a reliable force this season. Nola boasts an 11-6 record with a commendable 3.60 ERA, ranking him as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He projects to pitch approximately 6.1 innings, allowing just 2.5 earned runs on average, which should keep the Nationals’ struggling offense at bay. In contrast, the Nationals will counter with Patrick Corbin, whose dismal 2-12 record and a 5.98 ERA paint a grim picture of his season. Despite a lower xFIP of 4.36 suggesting some bad luck, Corbin has consistently struggled, projecting to allow 3.5 earned runs over just 5.0 innings of work.

At the plate, the Phillies have the 7th best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 3rd best batting average and 6th best home run total. In contrast, the Nationals rank just 22nd overall, with a particularly concerning 29th ranking in home runs. This stark contrast could heavily influence the game’s outcome. Bryce Harper has been the standout for the Phillies, delivering a 0.364 batting average and 1.031 OPS over the last week, while CJ Abrams has been the lone bright spot for the Nationals, hitting a respectable 0.300 in the same span.

With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the Phillies enter the matchup as heavy favorites with a -260 moneyline, which indicates strong confidence in their ability to win. As Aaron Nola takes the mound, he should have every opportunity to exploit the Nationals’ weaknesses, suggesting that Philadelphia is well-positioned to secure another victory.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Patrick Corbin is expected to throw 85 pitches in this matchup, which is the 14th-highest number of pitches for all pitchers on the slate today. This estimate is based on his inherent tendencies and the nature of the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  James Wood has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 94.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Aaron Nola has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling an 8.43 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.49 — a 1.06 K/9 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Trea Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+145/-190)
  When it comes to his batting average, Trea Turner has had some very good luck this year. His .302 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .246.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Bryce Harper has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-295)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 59 games at home (+14.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 games (+9.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)
  Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+9.00 Units / 129% ROI)