Explore the Game Breakdown: Brewers vs Cardinals Team Stats and Insights – 7/09/2026

Milwaukee Brewers

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St. Louis Cardinals

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Logan Henderson – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Logan Henderson to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 83 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Garrett Mitchell has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99.1-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 93.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen projects as the 8th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has gone to his non-fastballs 7.9% more often this year (50.7%) than he did last year (42.8%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nathan Church – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Milwaukee’s #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Nathan Church, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.25 Units / 63% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-135)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 away games (+9.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Garrett Mitchell has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.15 Units / 60% ROI)