Phillies vs Royals Picks and Betting Tips - July 4th, 2026

-150O/U: 9
(-110/-110)+130

Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
Out of all starting pitchers, Jesus Luzardo’s fastball velocity of 96.5 mph is in the 90th percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (43.9% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
Compared to the average hurler, Michael Wacha has been given an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 4.1 adjusted pitches each start.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
Extreme groundball bats like Starling Marte usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Jesus Luzardo.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 away games (+10.20 Units / 31% ROI)
J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 44% ROI)

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