Winning Probability and Match Preview for Cardinals vs Braves – 7/01/2026

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Atlanta Braves

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Michael McGreevy’s change-up percentage has risen by 10.1% from last year to this one (11% to 21.1%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.6-mph average last season has lowered to 86.3-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 19.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Reynaldo Lopez’s 2061-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 5th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jorge Mateo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  In terms of his batting average, Jorge Mateo has been lucky since the start of last season. His .226 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .144.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  The Atlanta Braves bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 34% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 45 away games (+10.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Mike Yastrzemski has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 47% ROI)