Analyze the Key Player Analysis for Dodgers vs Brewers – Wednesday August 14, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Milwaukee Brewers

In a key National League matchup on August 14, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Los Angeles Dodgers at American Family Field. Both teams are in the thick of the race, with the Brewers holding a record of 67-52 and the Dodgers at 71-49. In their previous game on August 13, the Brewers fell to the Dodgers with a score of 7-2, and they will be looking to bounce back after a tough loss.

The Brewers are projected to start Frankie Montas, who has struggled this season, posting a 5.10 ERA and a 5-8 record over 21 starts. However, Montas has shown flashes of potential, managing to strike out 7 batters in his last outing, albeit in a rough 4-inning performance. On the other side of the mound, the Dodgers will counter with Walker Buehler, who has a lackluster 5.84 ERA and has allowed 7 earned runs in his last start. While both pitchers have been inconsistent, Montas’s high walk rate (9.9 BB%) could give the high-walk Dodgers offense a significant advantage.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 2nd in stolen bases and 8th overall in runs scored this season, driven by the strong performance of Willy Adames, their best hitter. Meanwhile, the Dodgers boast the 2nd-best offense in MLB, highlighted by Shohei Ohtani’s remarkable numbers, including 37 home runs. As the game’s total is set at 8.5 runs, the projections suggest this matchup could be closely contested, with both teams given an implied team total of 4.25 runs.

Overall, despite their recent loss, the Brewers have a solid chance to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the Dodgers’ struggles with Buehler’s ERA. It promises to be an intriguing game as both teams battle for momentum in the grind of the season.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Out of all SPs, Walker Buehler’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph is in the 84th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Austin Barnes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Austin Barnes’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 90.4-mph mark last season has dropped to 84.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Mookie Betts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)
  Recording 14.6 outs per game per started this year on average, Frankie Montas places him the 11th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-265/+195)
  In terms of his batting average, Brice Turang has had bad variance on his side this year. His .252 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .289.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The underlying talent of the Milwaukee Brewers projected batting order today (.309 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .322 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 111 games (+12.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+410/-650)
  Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 21 games (+16.50 Units / 79% ROI)