Read the Royals vs Rays Prediction and Game Breakdown – June 22nd, 2026

Kansas City Royals

@

Tampa Bay Rays

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Michael Wacha has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording 3.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme flyball batters like Salvador Perez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Today’s version of the Royals projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .303 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .321 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Drew Rasmussen in the 89th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.