
Milwaukee Brewers
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Atlanta Braves
+115O/U: 7.5
(+100/-120)-135
(+100/-120)-135
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)Kyle Harrison is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue among all stadiums in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Chris Sale – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)As a result of his huge platoon split, Chris Sale will have a disadvantage being matched up with 6 hitters in the projected batting order of opposing handedness in today’s matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Mauricio Dubon is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Atlanta Braves – 2H MoneylineThe Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+4.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+7.00 Units / 13% ROI)
