
Texas Rangers
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Kansas City Royals
-115O/U: 10
(-110/-110)-105
(-110/-110)-105
Texas Rangers Insights
- Texas Rangers – Moneyline (-115)Among every team on the slate today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the the Texas Rangers.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Kyle Higashioka – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Kansas City’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Kyle Higashioka, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Texas Rangers – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers’ bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Seth Lugo has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 3.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starter.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Lane Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Lane Thomas is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Jac Caglianone hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 45 games (+6.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)Jac Caglianone has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.10 Units / 81% ROI)
