Read the Reds vs Cardinals Betting Guide – June 5, 2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

St. Louis Cardinals

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Brady Singer’s sinker usage has risen by 5.7% from last year to this one (40.8% to 46.5%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 8th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Kyle Leahy’s fastball spin rate has decreased 186 rpm this season (2188 rpm) below where it was last year (2374 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 89.6-mph mark last year has lowered to 84.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under Total Bases
  Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 58% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 away games (+4.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-145)
  Nolan Gorman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.75 Units / 61% ROI)