Latest Player Stats for Reds vs Pirates - Sunday May 3, 2026

+100O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-120

Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
Ranking in the 80th percentile, Chase Burns has notched a 3.4 K/BB rate since the start of last season.
Explain: K/BB rate is one of the best measures of a pitcher’s effectiveness in a given season, regardless of his ERA (which is prone to extreme randomness and luck).
JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
JJ Bleday has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
The Cincinnati Reds have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Matt McLain, Will Benson, Elly De La Cruz).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Braxton Ashcraft will average a total of 5.3 strikeouts today.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.0 (+125)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games at home (+6.65 Units / 12% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 69% ROI)
Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-105/-125)
Bryan Reynolds has hit the Walks Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+21.45 Units / 86% ROI)

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