Review the Yankees vs Astros Insights and Game Breakdown – April 24, 2026

New York Yankees

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Houston Astros

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Will Warren has averaged 84.4 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 24th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Aaron Judge has made notable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 25.9% seasonal rate to 32.1% in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Lance McCullers Jr. – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Lance McCullers Jr.’s cutter utilization has spiked by 24.5% from last season to this one (4.6% to 29.1%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Yainer Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 93.5-mph average last year has dropped off to 87.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The underlying talent of the Houston Astros projected lineup today (.328 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .339 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 away games (+7.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-105/-125)
  Yordan Alvarez has hit the Walks Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)