Cincinnati Reds
Miami Marlins
(-110/-110)+100
On August 7, 2024, the Miami Marlins will host the Cincinnati Reds in a crucial National League matchup at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins, struggling this season with a record of 42-72, are coming off a disappointing loss to the Reds, where they fell 8-2 in the second game of their series. In stark contrast, the Reds, with a 55-58 record, are having an average season but have recently shown some offensive firepower.
Miami is projected to start Valente Bellozo, a right-handed pitcher currently ranked as the 233rd best starter in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Bellozo has struggled this season with a 0-1 record across three starts, although his 4.20 ERA suggests some bad luck, as indicated by his 3.14 xERA. He tends to allow an average of 5.0 hits and 1.3 walks per game, which could be a recipe for disaster against a Reds lineup that ranks 13th in team home runs.
On the other side, Cincinnati will send out Andrew Abbott, a left-handed pitcher who boasts a solid 3.41 ERA but has a concerning 4.96 xFIP, indicating he may have been fortunate thus far. Abbott has averaged 5.2 innings per start this season and will face a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in MLB, struggling to produce runs and power.
Interestingly, projections show the Marlins may have a better shot at winning this game than the betting odds suggest, with a projected win probability of 52%. Given these matchups and the current trends, this game could be tighter than expected, making it an intriguing contest for both teams.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-120)The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the weakest among every team on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Jake Fraley is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)Valente Bellozo is an extreme flyball pitcher (37% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Ali Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Extreme groundball batters like Ali Sanchez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jesus Sanchez, Derek Hill, Cristian Pache).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+15.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+135)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 108 games (+8.50 Units / 6% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)Noelvi Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 away games (+12.70 Units / 115% ROI)