Winning Probability and Team Stats for Marlins vs Tigers Match – Sunday April 12, 2026

Miami Marlins

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Detroit Tigers

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Out of all starters, Sandy Alcantara’s fastball velocity of 96.5 mph ranks in the 91st percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Xavier Edwards is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Miami Marlins in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .306, which is a fair amount worse than their actual wOBA of .317 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Tarik Skubal has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an extra 3.6 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Colt Keith has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.5-mph average to last year’s 90.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+9.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+8.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-190)
  Austin Slater has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.50 Units / 45% ROI)