Odds and Betting Trends for Mets vs Cardinals – 3/30/26

New York Mets

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St. Louis Cardinals

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Clay Holmes has compiled an 8.9% Swinging Strike% since the start of last season, checking in at the 23rd percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+670/-1400)
  Luis Robert Jr.’s quickness has declined this season. His 29.01 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.35 ft/sec now.
  Explain: Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Today, Jorge Polanco is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.2% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Kyle Leahy to be limited in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Extreme flyball bats like Nolan Gorman tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Clay Holmes.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Pedro Pages).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+8.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 away games (+7.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+490/-850)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+7.30 Units / 122% ROI)