Dive Into Player Props Analysis for Yankees vs Giants – Friday March 27, 2026

New York Yankees

@

San Francisco Giants

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Cameron Schlittler has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 62% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Aaron Judge’s 95.6-mph average exit velocity is one of the best in baseball since the start of last season: 100th percentile.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The New York Yankees have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton, Austin Wells, Jose Caballero).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Placing in the 83rd percentile, Robbie Ray notched a 12.5% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Willy Adames is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of New York (#3-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.75 Units / 25% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 70 games (+16.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Harrison Bader has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 57% ROI)