
Toronto Blue Jays
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Los Angeles Dodgers
+165O/U: 8
(-115/-105)-195
(-115/-105)-195
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Trey Yesavage – Over/Under 12.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)Trey Yesavage has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 18 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Daulton Varsho is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Los Angeles (#2-best on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- The Toronto Blue Jays have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Davis Schneider, Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Blake Snell – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Blake Snell has used his change-up 6.1% more often this season (23.6%) than he did last season (17.5%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Tommy Edman will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side against Trey Yesavage in today’s matchup.Explain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen grades out as the best out of all teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-195)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 34 games (+13.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+165)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 81 of their last 132 games (+23.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Mookie Betts has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.25 Units / 23% ROI)
