Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Mets vs Marlins – 9/27/2025

New York Mets

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the New York Mets on September 27, 2025, both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack with records of 78-82 and 82-78, respectively. While neither team is currently contending for a playoff spot, every game counts as they look to finish the season strong. In their previous matchup, the Mets emerged victorious, adding to the pressure for the Marlins to bounce back.

On the mound, the Marlins are set to start Eury Perez, who has had an average season with a 7-5 record and a 4.20 ERA. Although his xERA of 3.24 suggests he may have been unlucky and could improve, he projects to pitch only 4.5 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 4.8 batters. This might not be enough against a powerful Mets offense that ranks 6th in MLB, boasting 223 home runs this season.

Clay Holmes will take the mound for the Mets, bringing an 11-8 record and a solid 3.66 ERA. However, his 4.22 xFIP indicates he might have benefitted from some good fortune this year. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, but with a concerning average of 5.2 hits allowed.

The Marlins’ offense ranks 19th overall but is bolstered by their 11th ranking in batting average. In contrast, the Mets’ offense is among the best, ranking 6th in MLB. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the projections suggest a close contest, but the Mets’ power could give them the edge in this matchup. Miami’s struggles against high-flyball pitchers like Perez may play a significant role in the outcome, especially against a lineup that can capitalize on those opportunities.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-130)
  The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under Hits
  Starling Marte is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-130)
  The New York Mets projected lineup grades out as the 2nd-best on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Eury Perez is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #25 HR venue in MLB in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Liam Hicks – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Liam Hicks has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 78.8-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 95 games (+22.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 96 games (+10.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-130/+100)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 35% ROI)