Player Predictions Overview for Twins vs Phillies – 9/26/2025

Minnesota Twins

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Philadelphia Phillies

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on September 26, 2025, the stakes are high for the Phillies, who are having a standout season with a record of 94-65. In stark contrast, the Twins are struggling at 69-90, marking a tough year for them. This Interleague matchup is particularly notable as the Phillies look to solidify their position in the playoff race.

In their most recent game, the Phillies displayed their offensive prowess, contributing to their reputation as the 2nd best offense in MLB this season. The team is led by a best hitter who has been on fire lately, hitting .500 with 13 hits, 5 runs, and 7 RBIs over the last week. Coupled with the fact that their lineup ranks 2nd in team batting average and 8th in home runs, the Phillies are well-equipped to exploit the weaknesses in the Twins’ pitching staff.

Aaron Nola, projected to start for Philadelphia, has had a rocky year with a 4-10 record and an ERA of 6.46. However, his advanced metrics suggest he could perform better than his statistics indicate, as his 3.85 xFIP shows he has been unlucky. He projects to allow 2.7 earned runs and strike out 6.7 batters today, which could be enough to handle a Minnesota offense that ranks 17th in MLB and struggles with a .228 batting average.

On the other hand, Joe Ryan, who is having a strong season for Minnesota, carries a 3.47 ERA and a 13-9 record. While Ryan ranks as the 21st best starting pitcher, he is projected to allow 2.7 earned runs but could face challenges against the potent Phillies lineup.

With the Phillies as betting favorites at -165, their high implied team total of 4.71 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on the Twins’ weaknesses. This game provides an opportunity for Philadelphia to cement their dominance and take a step closer to postseason play.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Joe Ryan has used his non-fastballs 8.3% less often this year (37.3%) than he did last year (45.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• James Outman – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+300/-440)
  James Outman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph to 101.1-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Minnesota Twins have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Outman, Edouard Julien, Byron Buxton).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Aaron Nola’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.3 mph this year (91.2 mph) below where it was last year (92.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Harrison Bader’s true offensive talent to be a .308, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .044 deviation between that mark and his actual .352 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 57 games at home (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 72 away games (+13.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Harrison Bader has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.55 Units / 27% ROI)