Discover Odds and Betting Trends for Mets vs Cubs – 9/25/25

New York Mets

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs host the New York Mets on September 25, 2025, in a critical matchup as both teams look to bolster their postseason hopes. With the Cubs currently standing at 89-69, they are having a strong season, while the Mets sit at 81-77, indicating an average year for them. In their previous encounter, the Cubs triumphed in a tight battle, showcasing their resilience and strong form of late.

The pitching matchup features Cubs’ Shota Imanaga, a left-handed pitcher who has started 24 games this season with a 9-7 record and a 3.37 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 107th best starter in MLB, his recent performances suggest he’s been somewhat fortunate, as indicated by his 4.47 xFIP. Imanaga is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and is expected to allow 2.8 earned runs, though he will need to improve on allowing 5.0 hits and 1.2 walks on average.

On the other side, the Mets are sending out Nolan McLean, who is enjoying an impressive season with a 1.27 ERA over 7 starts, holding the 52nd ranking among starters. McLean has a 4-1 record and is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs. His high strikeout rate (27.9%) could pose challenges for a Cubs offense ranked 9th in MLB, particularly since they also have low strikeout numbers.

The Cubs’ offense is potent, ranking 8th in home runs and 3rd in stolen bases, while the Mets are no slouches either with a 6th overall ranking in offensive production. However, with a Game Total of 7.5 runs, oddsmakers expect a close game, reflected by both teams’ moneyline set at -110. Given the strengths of the Cubs’ offense against Imanaga’s flyball tendencies, fans can expect an exciting, competitive showdown at Wrigley Field.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Nolan McLean has been lucky this year, posting a 1.27 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.07 — a 2.8 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Shota Imanaga’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this year (90.2 mph) below where it was last season (91.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Michael Busch has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.2-mph to 96-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+16.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 57 of their last 104 games (+10.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+390/-600)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+11.40 Units / 142% ROI)