Expert Player Predictions for Red Sox vs Blue Jays – Thursday, September 25, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on September 25, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race within the American League East. The Blue Jays currently hold a record of 90-68, while the Red Sox are just behind at 87-71. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they vie for playoff positioning.

In their last game, the Blue Jays suffered a disappointing loss to the Red Sox, falling 7-1, which adds pressure on them to turn the tide in this series. The Blue Jays will send Louie Varland to the mound, a right-hander who has yet to start a game this season, instead making 72 appearances out of the bullpen. His ERA of 3.16 is impressive, but his xERA of 4.21 suggests he might not maintain that level of performance. Varland projects to pitch an average of just 1.1 innings today, which could be a significant disadvantage against a potent Red Sox lineup.

Brayan Bello, also a right-handed pitcher, will take the hill for Boston. Bello has started 27 games this year, boasting a solid ERA of 3.34, but his xFIP indicates he might also be due for a regression. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, which should keep the Red Sox competitive.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank 1st in MLB in team batting average, while the Red Sox are not far behind at 4th. Given the Blue Jays’ strength at the plate and their 3rd ranked bullpen, they could capitalize on Bello’s recent struggles. With the Blue Jays favored at -140, this game promises to be a critical clash in the playoff race.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Brayan Bello is an extreme groundball pitcher (49.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #3 HR venue in the league — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Rob Refsnyder – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Rob Refsnyder has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last season’s 89.5-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Eric Lauer has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed hitters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme flyball batters like Anthony Santander tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 125 games (+20.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+115)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 95 games (+17.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Trevor Story has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.90 Units / 34% ROI)