Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Rockies vs Mariners – 9/24/2025

Colorado Rockies

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on September 24, 2025, they come off a strong performance in their last matchup, winning 6-2. The Mariners, sitting at 88-69, are enjoying a solid season and are well-positioned in the playoff race. In contrast, Colorado has struggled significantly, posting a dismal 43-114 record.

In this Interleague showdown at T-Mobile Park, Seattle’s ace, Luis Castillo, is projected to take the mound. Castillo has had an up-and-down year, with a Win/Loss record of 10-8 and a respectable ERA of 3.63. Despite this, advanced metrics suggest he has been a little fortunate, as his xFIP stands at 4.18, indicating he may regress slightly going forward. Castillo’s ability to pitch deep into games—averaging 6.1 innings with 7.3 strikeouts per outing—will be crucial against a Rockies offense that ranks a lowly 27th in the league.

On the other side, Tanner Gordon is slated to start for Colorado. While he has a decent Win/Loss record of 6-7, his ERA of 6.00 showcases a tough season. Gordon’s xFIP of 4.32 indicates he could potentially improve, but he’ll have his hands full against a Mariners lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB in home runs, a category in which they excel.

Seattle’s offense has been inconsistent, ranking 20th in batting average, but their power potential could turn Gordon’s flyball tendencies into runs. With the Mariners being substantial betting favorites and boasting a high implied team total of 4.75 runs, they look primed to capitalize on Colorado’s weaknesses and secure another win.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tanner Gordon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Given that groundball pitchers hold a big edge over groundball hitters, Tanner Gordon and his 37.5% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in today’s outing facing 3 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kyle Karros – Over/Under Total Bases
  Kyle Karros has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99.5-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 87.4-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has used his non-fastballs 5% less often this season (31.6%) than he did last season (36.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Extreme flyball bats like Eugenio Suarez usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Gordon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (-295)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 30 games at home (+16.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 84 of their last 146 games (+14.45 Units / 8% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.30 Units / 29% ROI)