White Sox vs Yankees Value Bets and Betting Line – 9/24/2025

Chicago White Sox

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees host the Chicago White Sox at Yankee Stadium on September 24, 2025, in what is the second game of their series. The Yankees, with an impressive record of 89-68, sit comfortably in the playoff race, while the White Sox struggle at 58-99, marking a disappointing season. In their last matchup, the Yankees edged out the White Sox 3-2, continuing their strong performance as they look to secure their postseason positioning.

Max Fried is projected to take the mound for the Yankees, coming off a stellar outing where he pitched 7 innings, allowing no earned runs while striking out 13 batters. Fried currently boasts an 18-5 record with a remarkable 2.92 ERA, making him one of the elite pitchers in MLB, ranked 7th overall. In contrast, Fraser Ellard of the White Sox has had a rough season, holding a 0-2 record with a 4.50 ERA. The projections suggest that Ellard might struggle today, particularly against a Yankees lineup that ranks 1st in MLB in offensive production and is known for its patience at the plate.

The Yankees’ offense has been potent, leading the league in home runs and demonstrating depth with their top hitter recording 49 home runs and a 1.121 OPS this season. On the other side, the White Sox offense ranks 28th, reflecting their struggles throughout the year. With the Yankees being heavy favorites with a moneyline of -360, they have an implied team total of 5.21 runs, while the White Sox sit at a low 2.79 runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Fraser Ellard will “start” for Chicago White Sox in today’s matchup but will server as an opener and may not stay in the game more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Curtis Mead – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Curtis Mead has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (56% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Today, Michael A. Taylor is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.1% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Max Fried has used his secondary offerings 7.1% more often this season (58%) than he did last year (50.9%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Aaron Judge has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 100.3-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 95.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-370)
  The best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-360)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 36 games (+15.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (+145)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 76 of their last 127 games (+14.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Jazz Chisholm has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+10.50 Units / 117% ROI)