White Sox vs Yankees Value Bets and Betting Line – 9/24/2025

Chicago White Sox

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New York Yankees

On September 24, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Chicago White Sox at Yankee Stadium, with significant implications for both teams given their contrasting seasons. The Yankees, currently 89-68 and enjoying a good year, are looking to solidify their position, while the White Sox, with a dismal 58-99 record, are merely playing for pride at this point in the season.

In their previous matchup, the Yankees edged out the White Sox with a close 3-2 victory. New York continues to boast the best offense in MLB, underscored by their staggering 263 home runs this season, while Chicago struggles at 28th in offensive rankings. This stark disparity sets the stage for an intriguing clash.

The Yankees are set to start Max Fried, who has established himself as one of the elite pitchers in the league, currently ranked 7th in Power Rankings. Fried’s statistics back this up—he has a remarkable 18-5 record and a stellar 2.92 ERA this year, alongside an impressive performance in his last start, where he pitched 7 innings with no earned runs and 13 strikeouts. On the other hand, Tyler Alexander, projected to start for the White Sox, is having a difficult season with a 5-14 record and a 5.13 ERA. His limited innings pitched and low strikeout rate present a clear mismatch against the Yankees’ potent lineup.

With the Yankees heavily favored at a moneyline of -370, the projections indicate they are expected to score around 5.23 runs. In contrast, the White Sox’s low implied team total of 2.77 runs suggests they will face an uphill battle. As the Yankees look to build momentum in this critical late-season stretch, the matchup decidedly favors them, particularly with Fried on the mound.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Tyler Alexander – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Alexander to throw 67 pitches today (least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
  Lenyn Sosa has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (54% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+370/-560)
  Today, Michael A. Taylor is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.1% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Max Fried has used his secondary offerings 7.1% more often this season (58%) than he did last year (50.9%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Aaron Judge has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 100.8-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 95.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The New York Yankees have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Giancarlo Stanton, Austin Slater, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Austin Wells).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-360)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 36 games (+15.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (+145)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 76 of their last 127 games (+14.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)