Player Stats for Phillies vs Dodgers – September 16th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Philadelphia Phillies on September 16, 2025, both teams are in the thick of a competitive season. The Dodgers, currently holding an 84-66 record, are looking to bounce back after a narrow 6-5 loss to the Phillies in their last matchup. Meanwhile, the Phillies, boasting a 90-61 record, are enjoying a strong campaign and have solidified their status as serious contenders.

Shohei Ohtani is projected to take the mound for the Dodgers. Although his 1-1 record this season and 3.75 ERA indicate some struggles, advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky and could improve. Ohtani’s ability to strike out 6.3 batters on average today is a positive sign, but he needs to address his projected 3.8 hits and 1.7 walks allowed, which are concerning.

On the other side, Cristopher Sanchez will start for the Phillies. With a remarkable 13-5 record and a stellar 2.57 ERA, Sanchez has been effective this year. His last outing was impressive, going 6 innings with just 1 earned run. However, his projections indicate he may be due for regression, particularly given his below-average strikeout rate of 4.7.

Offensively, the Dodgers rank 3rd in MLB, showcasing their powerful lineup with 220 home runs this season. In contrast, the Phillies sit at 4th in MLB, with a strong batting average and decent power numbers. The projections suggest that while the Dodgers are favored, the close moneyline indicates this matchup could be tighter than anticipated, especially given the elite status of both starting pitchers. With a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup promises to be a strategic battle between two of the league’s top teams.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Cristopher Sanchez has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, notching a 9.48 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.23 — a 0.25 K/9 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Kyle Schwarber has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 102.1-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 94.6-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Weston Wilson, Kyle Schwarber, Brandon Marsh, Otto Kemp).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Among all starters, Shohei Ohtani’s fastball velocity of 97.7 mph grades out in the 98th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Batters such as Mookie Betts with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen profiles as the best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 79 games (+10.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 54 away games (+18.25 Units / 29% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+130/-170)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.55 Units / 46% ROI)