Reds vs Athletics Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Sunday, September 14, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Athletics

As the Cincinnati Reds visit Sutter Health Park on September 14, 2025, they look to build on their recent performance, having secured a victory against the Oakland Athletics just yesterday. The stakes are somewhat diminished for both teams, as neither is in contention for their respective divisions; however, the Reds are aiming to finish the season strong.

The Athletics, currently at 69-80, have had a below-average season but boast the 7th best offense in MLB, supported by a potent lineup that ranks 4th in team batting average and 4th in home runs. Their pitching matchup features Luis Morales, who has a solid ERA of 2.73 but is projected to allow an average of 2.5 earned runs over 5.0 innings. Despite being ranked 141st among starting pitchers, Morales’s performance indicates he has been somewhat fortunate this season, as suggested by his xFIP of 4.15.

Conversely, the Reds counter with Nick Lodolo, who has been a reliable arm this season with an ERA of 3.10 and a Power Rankings position of 41st. Lodolo’s projections show him allowing 2.8 earned runs over 5.5 innings, making him a valuable asset in this matchup.

While the Reds’ offense is ranked 18th, their recent play has shown promise, with the team’s best hitter recording a solid OPS of 1.500 over the last week. The Athletics are projected to have a high implied team total of 4.75 runs, suggesting that they could capitalize on Lodolo’s potential vulnerabilities, particularly in allowing 5.5 hits and 1.4 walks on average.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Nick Lodolo’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (93.1 mph) below where it was last season (94.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Noelvi Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Noelvi Marte’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 88.8-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 74.4-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Matt McLain hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Athletics Insights

• Luis Morales – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-165)
  Luis Morales has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 6.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Nicholas Kurtz’s true offensive ability to be a .353, suggesting that he has been lucky this year given the .071 gap between that mark and his actual .424 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Athletics in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .316, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .328 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Athletics have hit the Run Line in 52 of their last 86 games (+11.80 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 119 games (+24.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Matt McLain has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)